One of my friends recently told me that he would like me to write some articles on the Stock Markets. I am not a speculator in the markets and hence I will not write about what I think the Stock Market is going to do or what I expect from it. Rather I will put down some of my thoughts with regard to Finance, Business and Companies. This post shall cover one of the oldest so called laws in Finance “Risk and Return”.
For those unfamiliar about this let me give you a brief descriptions (Investment Bankers and Research Analysts: Do not point out insufficiency, since I am trying to put it in a language that most of my visitors can understand). It is said that every stock listed on an exchange has too kinds of risk – Market Risk (Risk that affects the market as a whole) and Company Risk (Risk that effects that particular company). Now, they say that all these risks can be bundled in up a shown as a term called beta (β) with respect to your standard index (like the Sensex or the Nifty). Now, what financial analysts and Investment Bankers say is that the profit that you make on your investment (i.e. the return on your investment) marches along with the Risk that your investment carries.
I, though, have a problem with this. Now, the way β is calculated, the risk of a stock is higher if the stock is more volatile. What I fail to comprehend is that if a stock is volatile how can you state that your investment will give better returns. Let me explain this further. Stock A is currently at 100. This entire week the price of this stock looks like this
Monday: 80
Tuesday: 120
Wednesday: 79
Thursday (Today): 100
This stock is volatile. That means the price is going to fluctuate vastly as indicated above. But how does that relate to the risk of this stock. I may buy this stock today at 100. But if it is plagued by bad managers, it is possible that the price of my stock falls to 40 at the end of the quarter. Some smart financial analysts deviced β to be based upon the past history of the price of the stock and said that this value is the risk. But if I were to logically analyze the risks affecting a company they would be as follows:
Market Risks
Terrorism, Economic slow down, inflation, rise in interest rates, rise in Credit Reserve Ratio
Company specific Risks
Incapable Manages, Poor processes, poor products, unstable market for the product
Now these risks have nothing to do with the price of the stock. Yet everyone in the Financial Markets still uses them. According to me, there is not much correlation between risk and return. It is impossible to state the returns just observing its past price trends. It has to be something more substantial rather than mathematical complexity to confuse people. Alas, it amazes me how even today we still don’t use the basics.